Question 1

What is Murphy's Law?

Accepted Answer

Murphy's Law states: "Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong — especially at the worst possible moment." Named after aerospace engineer Edward Murphy Jr. in 1949, it reflects a practical truth about complex systems. Engineers use it to justify redundancy: if something can fail, assume it will, and build a backup.

Question 2

What is the Dunning-Kruger Effect?

Accepted Answer

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is a cognitive bias where people with limited competence in a domain lack the metacognitive ability to recognise their own limitations. Beginners dramatically overestimate their competence because they don't yet know enough to evaluate what they don't know. Genuine expertise tends to produce humility rather than certainty.

Question 3

What is the Sunk Cost Fallacy?

Accepted Answer

The Sunk Cost Fallacy occurs when we factor in past investments — money, time, effort — that cannot be recovered when making current decisions. Rational choice says only future costs and benefits should matter. The fallacy keeps people in bad jobs, bad relationships, and losing investments far too long. The correct question is always: 'If I had not already invested X, what would I choose now?'

Question 4

What is the Butterfly Effect?

Accepted Answer

The Butterfly Effect, coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz, describes how tiny changes in initial conditions cascade into dramatically different outcomes in complex systems. It is a core insight of chaos theory: small differences compound exponentially over time. A butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could theoretically trigger a tornado in Texas weeks later.

Question 5

What is Survivorship Bias?

Accepted Answer

Survivorship Bias is the logical error of focusing only on subjects that passed a selection filter while ignoring those that didn't — because the failures are invisible. Classic example: WWII analysts reinforced the wrong parts of planes by studying returning bombers — missing that planes hit in the engine and cockpit never came back. It distorts our understanding of success across business, investing, and science.

Question 6

What is the Bystander Effect?

Accepted Answer

The Bystander Effect shows that people are less likely to help in emergencies when others are present. Two mechanisms drive it: diffusion of responsibility ('someone else will call 911') and pluralistic ignorance (everyone watches others who appear calm and concludes there's no emergency). The practical antidote: in an emergency, point at one specific person and make a direct request.

Question 7

What is Confirmation Bias?

Accepted Answer

Confirmation Bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, and recall information in a way that confirms existing beliefs while dismissing contradicting evidence. It drives medical misdiagnosis, investment bubbles, and political polarisation. The antidote is deliberate falsification: actively seek evidence that your current belief is wrong.

Question 8

What is the Halo Effect?

Accepted Answer

The Halo Effect occurs when a positive impression in one area — such as physical attractiveness — bleeds into unrelated judgments like intelligence or writing quality. Psychologist Edward Thorndike described it in 1920. We form fast overall impressions, then fill in gaps with the assumption that everything else matches. It explains why attractive people are assumed more trustworthy and why celebrity endorsements work.

Question 9

What is the Streisand Effect?

Accepted Answer

The Streisand Effect describes how attempts to hide, suppress, or censor information online tend to draw far more attention to it than if nothing had been done. Named after Barbra Streisand's 2003 lawsuit that made a photo of her home go viral. Legal threats become news; news generates curiosity; curiosity drives searches. Attempts to suppress become the story.

Question 10

What is Goodhart's Law?

Accepted Answer

Goodhart's Law states: 'When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.' Once success is defined numerically, people optimise for the number rather than the underlying reality it was meant to represent. This is why test scores distort education, quarterly earnings distort corporate strategy, and almost every institutional metric eventually gets gamed.

Mind Traps

This one's tricky 🤔